Break the Curse

17Sep/090

Star or Black Hole? The Statistical Myth of Zach Randolph

When you type in "Zach Randolph" in google with "black hole" and "cancer," titles like Trading for Zach Randolph is Basketball Suicide, Back Hole Sun: Do the Grizzlies Really Not pass? ...etc. Looking through some of the discussion boards, you see things like "Zach is a retzachrandolph3arded SOB who thinks he is god, is a black hole, doesn't defend, is overweight, has a terrible attitude, and did I mention he's a cancer?"

Let me begin this article by saying that I have never been a Zach Randolph fan. In fact, I hate his attitude on and off the court. Why am I even writing this article? Because I believe ESPN has overblown Z-bo's negatives. Too many of today's internet writers just copy whatever ESPN churns out. These writers in turn quotes ESPN like its the bible.

Statistics. Now, I know before I even bring up his stats, you are going to think - "Oh, sure Z-bo is a statsheet stuffer, but he doesn't pass the ball." In return, I am going to show you stats that show you he is a very good low post scoring threat who's deficiencies have been condemned unjustly.

First of all, I want to dispute the notion that Zach Randolph is lazy. Yes, he is a piece of fat lard but that doesn't mean he is lazy. Lets use rebounding as a measure of effort. To get rebounds, you have to do either - (1) be really tall, (2) jump really high, (3) get in a good position and box out your man. Randolph is 6'9" and he really doesn't jump very high for NBA standards. So that means he works and gets in position for rebounds. Discounting his first 2 years, Randolph averaged more than 10 rebounds for 5 of the last 7 seasons.

Lets compare that to Rasheed Wallace who is a 4-time all-star and plays just a tad more minutes per game than Randolph. How many seasons have he gotten over 10 rebounds per game? 0. In face, he has only averaged 8 or more in 2 seasons out of his entire career.

If the rebounding averages didn't convince you, lets go into advanced statistics. Career defensive rebound pct: 'Sheed is at 18.7%, Z-bo is at 22.9% and over 25% for the past 3 seasons. Just for the heck of it, I will throw in KG's godly rebounding numbers. KG is at 25.6% career and had 4 seasons of 2zachrandolph29.7% or higher during his prime. Oh, and Z-bo doubles Rasheed's offensive rebounds averages, so don't even go there.   Here is a top 10 rebounders list on Yahoo!'s Ball Don't Lie. (hint: Z-bo is on it)

OKay... so he is really not that lazy.. but he is a big black hole on offense. The simplest but inaccurate stats too look at is assists averages. RW: 1.9, ZB: 1.7. Both numbers are well within the norm for primary inside scoring options. Z-bo has actually averaged 1.9 and getting higher if his 2 seasons of riding the pine in Portland gets taken out. Dwelling further into passing, Randolph's career assist percentage is actually higher than Rasheed's. 10.6 to 9.8.

Alright. so he passes the ball just like other power forwards, but he jacks up shots and turn the ball over. Looking at turnover averages for number one inside scoring option, Randolph is again right smack down the middle. He does not turn the ball over particularly more than others. His average is the same as Bosh. Rasheed only gets 1.6 TO per game but I would argue that he really isn't an inside force anymore and haven't been for a very long time. Here are the shooting statistics for Rasheed and Zach respectively: FG% .471, TS% .539, eFG% .510 | FG% .466 TS% .520 eFG% .472. So the shooting percentage favors Rasheed but only slightly. I said slightly because Rasheed's 3pt shooting skews the true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage for him. In the past 2 seasons since Randolph started shooting some 3s, the numbers have been almost identical. You also have to take into consideration that Wallace has always been on good teams with better teammates. Also Rasheed takes less shots and scores way less points. That should help his shooting % in theory.

In my humble opinion, Z-bo would be a really good fit with in Cleveland with Lebron being the undisputed leader and first option. I really believed that had Cleveland courted Randolph and offered the Clippers a similar 2nd round pick, the Cavs would be the consensus NBA champ from day 1. Lebron's dominance on the offense end coupled with Mike Brown's emphasis on defense(with the support of Lebron) already has the Cavs as perennial contender. Add in Randolph's inside scoring and rebounding, they will be unstoappable. There would be no argument on getting more shots as long as Lebron is in charge. Now that he is in Memphis will ballhogs Gay, Mayo and AI, Z-bo will probably nullify everything I just wrote and be a malcontent player.

I never thought I would ever say this but.. please Zach Randolph, show 'the experts' that you are a star and not a black hole.

Statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.

30Aug/090

Gradebook: 22 most influential off-sesason moves(Part 3 of 4)

9 Washington Wizards traded Oleksiy Pecherov, Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila, 5th pick to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Randy Foye, Mike Miller
The wizards traded away their lottery pick and a bunch of bit PFs for Mike Miller and Randy Foye.  I believe this is a very good move by Washington.  There was really no one the Wizards could draft at No. 5 mike-millerthat would contribute immediate or even in 2 years on a playoff roster.  This is important because Jamison is already 33 and will start to decline within the next three years.  They received Mike Miller, who is a very solid contributor.  Personally I believe Miller performs better on a good team which may explain his struggles last season.  An amazing article on bulletsforever.com offers statistics/explanations on Miller’s strange season in Minnesota.  This deal helps the wizards tremendously as now they can bring Nick Young off the bench.  That means no more DeShawn Stevenson and his stupid hand waving taunts.  The wizards may not be very deep but Arenas-Jamison-Butler combo is plenty lethal.  Blatche and McGee should continue to improve.

Minnesota drafted Johnny Flynn then Ricky Rubio which didn’t make a whole lot of sense.  However, if Rubio turns out to be as good as I think he will be then the Wolves made a great trade.  That is a big if and it is not even guaranteed that Rubio will play in the NBA within the next 2 seasons.  So for now Minnesota is going to receive a big fat F but I reserve the right to change it as David Kahn might get Rubio to come and/or turn Rubio/Flynn into other assets.

Grades: A (Washington Wizards), F (Minnesota Timberwolves)

DNEWS JAZZ PISTON MAB8 Rasheed Wallace signs with the Boston Celtics (3-yrs, $20m)
Many people might be surprised that Rasheed never averaged more than 20 points nor 9 rebounds in a season. In fact, he has averaged just 12/7 over the past 3 years.  Many people believe that he will be able to spread the floor for the Celtics but ‘sheed has not shot over 45% since 2003 season.  He is a good 3pt shooter you say.  Well, he is a 35% shooter from long range; that is serviceable… for a PF.  He does make a decent backup that is if KG is able to come back from his mysterious knee injury.  KG/’sheed combo at power forward is lethal but I don’t think it will make the Celtics better than their competitors.  Their goal is to win the championship, not be a second round fodder to Cleveland or Orlando.  The Celts better hope Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins get even better.  All I am trying to say is ‘sheed aint no fab four.  Garnett, Wallace and Davis all like to shoot from the outside.  What they really need is some inside play to help out Perkins.  Of course, getting Rasheed is better than not getting anyone at all.

3 years also seem to be one year too many for the Celtics’s need.  Although it would be an attractive expiring contract in 2012.

Grade: C+ (Boston Celtics)

7 Andre Miller signs with the Portland Trailblazers (3-yrs, $21m)
Rumor is that Miller would be coming off the bench behind Steve Blake.  However, I am not sure how long that will last.  In any case, Miller will be playing the majority of minutes at PG(32min+).  Blake will see some action as he is a much more capable long ranger shooter.  There is no reason that Brandon Roy won’t mesh with Miller.  Everyone was talking about Derrick Rose last season, but in reality Andre Miller had a better regular season than Rose.  Miller is a dependable distributor who can direct a young team like this and advance them post season.  I believe Miller makes a much better addition than Turkoglu would have been.  The Blazers have youth at SF (Batum, Outlaw, and Fernandez) but Blake or Sergio isn’t going to cut it as a starting PG for an elite team.

Grade: A (Portland TrailBlazers)

6 Ron Artest signs with the Los Angeles Lakers (5-yrs, $34m)2760592GD009_Pacers_Bulls
I really believe Artest is a better player than Ariza is at this point and will continue to be for the next 2 years.  His toughness will definitely improve the Lakers biggest weakness: softness.  The deal does seem long especially given Kobe and Artest’s age and mileage.  Playing for Phil Jackson will keep Artest in line.  Not too sure how well he will mesh with Kobe but it is only fitting for Hollywood if some sort of drama flares up between them.  There is not much to say here except Artest is a very good player and his presence will certainly improve the Lakers.

Grade: B (Los Angeles Lakers)

5 Memphis Grizzlies traded for Jerry Stackhouse, 2016 2nd round pick. Orlando Magic traded for cash, $9m trade exception.
Dallas Mavericks traded for Shawn Marion (5-yrs, $38m), Greg Buckner, Kris Humphries, Nathan Jawai, cash.
Toronto Raptors traded for Hedo Turkoglu (5-yrs, $53m), Devean George, Antoine Wright.
Orlando receives a $9 million trade exception that they can use any time until next summer.  If they are one of the top 2 seeds at the trading deadline, they can use it to acquire a big name start.  Or if Vince Carter isn’t working out for them, they can use it the next offseason.  This allows them a lot of flexibility and ability to exceed the salary cap.  Whatever big move Orlando makes will probably bring them even closer to a championship.

I think Dallas did great in getting Marion.  He is super athletic and is great playing transitional offense.  He is still signed for 5 years and he is already 30.  I actually believe this is okay because Dirk will start to decline in about the same time period so the Mavs will have lots of flexibility when the time comes.  Marion will push the Mavs into the playoff but just how far they go is up in the airs.  In acquiring Marion, Josh Howard became expandable.  Kidd-Terry-Marion-Dirk-(center).  So the Mavs has some trading chip in Howard and could significantly upgrade their frontcourt with a trade.  Humphries is capable of playing solid minutes as a backup.

A contract for 5 years at more than $10 million per year is pretty ridiculous for a player who has never been an all-star.  Toronto reminds a purely jump shooting team without good defense and that is just not going to make them competitive among the top teams.  They want to keep Chris Bosh but I am not really sure if this is going to work.  I don’t see them being better than Atlanta to even get home court in the first round.  At least they are trying.

Grade: A (Orlando Magic), C (Memphis Grizzlies), B+ (Dallas Mavericks), C+ (Toronto Raptors)

shaqkobe4 Phoenix Suns traded Shaquille O'Neal to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, 2010 2nd round pick, cash
Giving up a crippled Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic for Shaq?  Hell yes.  Adding Shaq really helps the Cavs at the offensive end.  They have true point and 2 good outside shooters to go with Lebron.  Add Shaq as the inside force and a scrappy player in Varejao.  That is a truly solid lineup with everything you need.  However much old age has robbed Shaq, he will still be an effective inside presence and a tremendous offensive player.  This will only be a good move if Shaq stays motivated and healthy.  I doubt motivation will be a problem as he gets to play with Lebron and get a chance to beat Kobe in the finals.  One drawback that is coming up in the news is that Lebron did not really give Shaq a welcoming reception.  I believe Shaq knows his role and will delight his teammates with his excellent passing ability.

Grade: B+ (Cleveland Cavaliers)

25Aug/092

Gradebook: 22 most influential off-sesason moves(Part 1 of 4)

55920929#22 Chris Andersen re-signs with the Denver Nuggets (5-yrs, $26m)
Birdman is a nice hustle player. He can play some sticky D and dunk to your heart’s content. Sure he averaged 2.5 blocks but do you really want him to play more than 20 mins a game? Do you really want the Birdman to be your starting center? No, you do not. Hence, you do not give him a ridiculously bloated contract. You are saying the former junkie won’t take 10 mil over 3 years?

Grade: D+ (Denver Nuggets)

#21 Antonio McDyess signs with the San Antonio Spurs (3-yrs, $16m)Antonio-McDyess
I think McDyess will be able to provide Duncan enough inside help. TD has not played with a capable offensive center since the Admiral. The contract does seem pretty high but maybe the Spurs will be able to parlay the expiring contract into something else come the 3rd year. As long as McDyess avoids major injury the first two years, the Spurs will be very happy with him.

Grade: B+ (San Antonio Spurs)

#20 Marcin Gortat re-signs with the Orlando Magic (5-yrs, $34m)
The polish hammer got a nice pay day as the Dallas Mavericks tried to sign him away from the Magic. Not really sure why the Magic would want to pay a backup center so much money when they already have superman. This is a lot of money for someone that is only going to be playing 15 mins a game. The Magic will have enough can space and money to sign a star player during the next offseason. Without Grotat’s contract, they could make an even bigger splash.

Grade: F (Orlando Magic)

#19 Los Angeles Clippers traded Zach Randolph to the Memphis Grizzlies for Quentin Richardson
zach_randolphOn the court, Randolph will be a good inside force in addition to Mayo and Gay. I don’t know where the passing is going to come from but it sure as hell isn’t coming from Mayo or Zbo. Randolph also comes with a hefty price tag that the Grizzles really don’t need. Not really sure how the Clippers convinced the Grizzles to take Zbo off their hand, but it is certainly a major accomplishment. This also allows the Clippers to start rookie Blake Griffin and give him major minutes.

Grade: A (Los Angeles Clippers), C- (Memphis Grizzlies)

#18 Brandon Bass signs with the Orlando Magic (4-yrs, $16m)
This is a great move for the Magic. It seems like Bass is slotted to start at PF with Lewis moving to SF. This allows them to play a more tradition lineup with more rebounding from the 4. Bass came with a very cheap price tag and should serve well under Coach Van Gundy. He is also a stellar mid range shooter who can bang inside. The problem here is that Orlando resigned Grotat and gave him a huge contract.

Grade: A- (Orlando Magic)

18Aug/092

Blake Griffin – Las Vegas Summer League 2009 Highlights

I complied a short clip of Blake Griffin highlights in Las Vegas Summer League.

BallHype: hype it up!