Break the Curse

2Nov/090

Fantasy Flyer – Week 1 Review + Outlook

**I am happy to announce that this write-up has made it on to a main stream sports website!
The NBA season finally got underway and some surprising players are already putting up monster stats. Scroll down for Week 2 pickups.

While LeBron, Kobe, Dirk are putting up top 15 stats, there are some other real surprises.

Stars with an awesome week

Carmelo Anthony, F, Denver

You probably saw Melo shoot the lights out in all three games so far. He shot 54 percent from the floor, 88 percent on free throws and 37 PPG will get it done. He's also getting good rebound and assist numbers against just six turnovers.

Rajon Rondo, PG, Boston

He has 47 assists plus 10 steals in four games. Add 56 percent field goals and 20 rebounds to that and Rondo is really rewarding those who drafted him early.

Andrea Bargnani, F/C, Toronto

Thus far, he's putting up 22 PPG, more than two threes, with awesome efficiency numbers. Look for this to continue all season. Capable of being a top-30 fantasy player.

Shooting Stars

Channing Frye, F, Phoenix

Ridiculous shooting numbers so far, going 6-for-10 in threes in one game. You definitely want him on your team, and he's only owned in 57 percent of Yahoo! leagues. He can single-handedly carry your team's three-point need all season and add in some decent rebounding numbers. Think last season's Troy Murphy with more threes, but half the rebounds.

Danilo Gallinari, G/F, New York

Even more threes than Frye, yet only 70 percent owned so far. He should be owned in all leagues simply because the volume of threes he'll be taking (and making). Definitely capable of shooting 42 percent from long range, but he's one-dimensional and won't contribute elsewhere. His shooting percentage is bad for a forward.

Andray Blatche, F, Washington

Draining mid-range jumpers at a 72 percent clip. That'll definitely slide, but he should be a good source of blocks and rebounds as long as either Caron Butler or Antawn Jamison aren't in the lineup.

Monster Numbers

Marc Gasol, C, Memphis

Only 80 percent owned? Pick him up NOW! RIGHT NOW! There were concerns about Gasol getting enough touches with all the newcomers on the Memphis squad, but he's put up 20 PPG plus 11 RPG in three games. He'll shoot an awesome percentage from the stripe, and the field goal percentage is likely to be 55 percent-plus. He'll provide double-digit scoring and rebounding in addition to the great percentages. Turnovers might be a concern, but it should be less than three per game.

Chris Kaman, C, L.A. Clippers

Perhaps getting overshadowed by other top performers this week. He has 22 PPG, 10 RPG, 1.8 BPG with career averages of 50 percent field goals and 74 percent free throws. He's certainly capable of 15 and 12 with two blocks as seen in 2007-08 season. It's just a matter of if he's interested in basketball. Right now, the answer is yes.

Marcus Camby, C, L.A. Clippers

Puts up some gaudy scoring numbers with his usual boards and blocks. Sell high soon, as come December he won't be getting the same playing time.

Youngsters taking flight

Louis Williams, G, Philadelphia

Not getting the same attention as Frye or Danilo, but he put up big scoring numbers with just two turnovers in three games. He won't continue to shoot 63 percent, but 17 PPG-plus and 1.5-plus steals can be had. Check if he's still available!

Aaron Brooks, PG, Houston

Shouldering the scoring load for Houston, he has 22 PPG and eight APG so far. We should expect 18 PPG, 6.5 APG this season. Look for his shooting average to be closer to 43 percent than the current 49, though. He'll be a great source of threes and steals all season, but you have to take his turnovers too, which will hover over three.

Worthy mentions of non-superstars

Al Horford, C, Atlanta
Brook Lopez, C, New Jersey
Grant Hill, F, Phoenix
Marreese Speights, C, Philadelphia
Gilbert Arenas, PG, Washington
Trevor Ariza, G/F, Houston
Andrew Bynum, C, L.A. Lakers
Ryan Anderson, F, Orlando
Mario Chalmers, PG, Miami

The Poopy List (Disappointing Stars)

Jose Calderon, PG, Toronto
Monta Ellis, G, Golden State
Stephen Jackson, G, Golden State
Anthony Randolph, F, Golden State
Derrick Rose, PG, Chicago
Charlie Villanueva, F, Detroit
Baron Davis, PG, L.A. Clippers

Fallen Stars (Injured)

Pau Gasol, F/C, L.A. Lakers
Antawn Jamison, F, Washington
Devin Harris, PG, New Jersey
Mehmet Okur, C, Utah
Nate Robinson, G, New York
Caron Butler, G, Washington
Josh Howard, F, Dallas
Richard Hamilton, G, Detroit
Vince Carter, G, Orlando

Solid Pickups
Ryan Gomes, F, Minnesota

Very solid for points, rebounds and threes. Won't hurt your team in the shooting categories. Definitely deserves a spot in any standard 12-team roto league.

Brendan Haywood, C, Washington

Should be owned already. Playing the Pacers and Suns back-to-bacl late in the week. Should definitely be a good play for those two.

Ben Wallace, C, Detroit

Getting lots of playing time. The steals, blocks and rebounds are there. The free throws ... well ... have never been there.

Cory Brewer, G/F, Minnesota

Managers looking for steals and blocks should take a look at Brewer. He'll even throw in a few threes to help.

Good Luck and beat your friends or win money(or both)!

30Aug/090

Gradebook: 22 most influential off-sesason moves(Part 3 of 4)

9 Washington Wizards traded Oleksiy Pecherov, Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila, 5th pick to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Randy Foye, Mike Miller
The wizards traded away their lottery pick and a bunch of bit PFs for Mike Miller and Randy Foye.  I believe this is a very good move by Washington.  There was really no one the Wizards could draft at No. 5 mike-millerthat would contribute immediate or even in 2 years on a playoff roster.  This is important because Jamison is already 33 and will start to decline within the next three years.  They received Mike Miller, who is a very solid contributor.  Personally I believe Miller performs better on a good team which may explain his struggles last season.  An amazing article on bulletsforever.com offers statistics/explanations on Miller’s strange season in Minnesota.  This deal helps the wizards tremendously as now they can bring Nick Young off the bench.  That means no more DeShawn Stevenson and his stupid hand waving taunts.  The wizards may not be very deep but Arenas-Jamison-Butler combo is plenty lethal.  Blatche and McGee should continue to improve.

Minnesota drafted Johnny Flynn then Ricky Rubio which didn’t make a whole lot of sense.  However, if Rubio turns out to be as good as I think he will be then the Wolves made a great trade.  That is a big if and it is not even guaranteed that Rubio will play in the NBA within the next 2 seasons.  So for now Minnesota is going to receive a big fat F but I reserve the right to change it as David Kahn might get Rubio to come and/or turn Rubio/Flynn into other assets.

Grades: A (Washington Wizards), F (Minnesota Timberwolves)

DNEWS JAZZ PISTON MAB8 Rasheed Wallace signs with the Boston Celtics (3-yrs, $20m)
Many people might be surprised that Rasheed never averaged more than 20 points nor 9 rebounds in a season. In fact, he has averaged just 12/7 over the past 3 years.  Many people believe that he will be able to spread the floor for the Celtics but ‘sheed has not shot over 45% since 2003 season.  He is a good 3pt shooter you say.  Well, he is a 35% shooter from long range; that is serviceable… for a PF.  He does make a decent backup that is if KG is able to come back from his mysterious knee injury.  KG/’sheed combo at power forward is lethal but I don’t think it will make the Celtics better than their competitors.  Their goal is to win the championship, not be a second round fodder to Cleveland or Orlando.  The Celts better hope Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins get even better.  All I am trying to say is ‘sheed aint no fab four.  Garnett, Wallace and Davis all like to shoot from the outside.  What they really need is some inside play to help out Perkins.  Of course, getting Rasheed is better than not getting anyone at all.

3 years also seem to be one year too many for the Celtics’s need.  Although it would be an attractive expiring contract in 2012.

Grade: C+ (Boston Celtics)

7 Andre Miller signs with the Portland Trailblazers (3-yrs, $21m)
Rumor is that Miller would be coming off the bench behind Steve Blake.  However, I am not sure how long that will last.  In any case, Miller will be playing the majority of minutes at PG(32min+).  Blake will see some action as he is a much more capable long ranger shooter.  There is no reason that Brandon Roy won’t mesh with Miller.  Everyone was talking about Derrick Rose last season, but in reality Andre Miller had a better regular season than Rose.  Miller is a dependable distributor who can direct a young team like this and advance them post season.  I believe Miller makes a much better addition than Turkoglu would have been.  The Blazers have youth at SF (Batum, Outlaw, and Fernandez) but Blake or Sergio isn’t going to cut it as a starting PG for an elite team.

Grade: A (Portland TrailBlazers)

6 Ron Artest signs with the Los Angeles Lakers (5-yrs, $34m)2760592GD009_Pacers_Bulls
I really believe Artest is a better player than Ariza is at this point and will continue to be for the next 2 years.  His toughness will definitely improve the Lakers biggest weakness: softness.  The deal does seem long especially given Kobe and Artest’s age and mileage.  Playing for Phil Jackson will keep Artest in line.  Not too sure how well he will mesh with Kobe but it is only fitting for Hollywood if some sort of drama flares up between them.  There is not much to say here except Artest is a very good player and his presence will certainly improve the Lakers.

Grade: B (Los Angeles Lakers)

5 Memphis Grizzlies traded for Jerry Stackhouse, 2016 2nd round pick. Orlando Magic traded for cash, $9m trade exception.
Dallas Mavericks traded for Shawn Marion (5-yrs, $38m), Greg Buckner, Kris Humphries, Nathan Jawai, cash.
Toronto Raptors traded for Hedo Turkoglu (5-yrs, $53m), Devean George, Antoine Wright.
Orlando receives a $9 million trade exception that they can use any time until next summer.  If they are one of the top 2 seeds at the trading deadline, they can use it to acquire a big name start.  Or if Vince Carter isn’t working out for them, they can use it the next offseason.  This allows them a lot of flexibility and ability to exceed the salary cap.  Whatever big move Orlando makes will probably bring them even closer to a championship.

I think Dallas did great in getting Marion.  He is super athletic and is great playing transitional offense.  He is still signed for 5 years and he is already 30.  I actually believe this is okay because Dirk will start to decline in about the same time period so the Mavs will have lots of flexibility when the time comes.  Marion will push the Mavs into the playoff but just how far they go is up in the airs.  In acquiring Marion, Josh Howard became expandable.  Kidd-Terry-Marion-Dirk-(center).  So the Mavs has some trading chip in Howard and could significantly upgrade their frontcourt with a trade.  Humphries is capable of playing solid minutes as a backup.

A contract for 5 years at more than $10 million per year is pretty ridiculous for a player who has never been an all-star.  Toronto reminds a purely jump shooting team without good defense and that is just not going to make them competitive among the top teams.  They want to keep Chris Bosh but I am not really sure if this is going to work.  I don’t see them being better than Atlanta to even get home court in the first round.  At least they are trying.

Grade: A (Orlando Magic), C (Memphis Grizzlies), B+ (Dallas Mavericks), C+ (Toronto Raptors)

shaqkobe4 Phoenix Suns traded Shaquille O'Neal to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, 2010 2nd round pick, cash
Giving up a crippled Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic for Shaq?  Hell yes.  Adding Shaq really helps the Cavs at the offensive end.  They have true point and 2 good outside shooters to go with Lebron.  Add Shaq as the inside force and a scrappy player in Varejao.  That is a truly solid lineup with everything you need.  However much old age has robbed Shaq, he will still be an effective inside presence and a tremendous offensive player.  This will only be a good move if Shaq stays motivated and healthy.  I doubt motivation will be a problem as he gets to play with Lebron and get a chance to beat Kobe in the finals.  One drawback that is coming up in the news is that Lebron did not really give Shaq a welcoming reception.  I believe Shaq knows his role and will delight his teammates with his excellent passing ability.

Grade: B+ (Cleveland Cavaliers)

17Aug/095

Blake Griffin vs. Michael Beasley

Being the No.1 pick of this year's NBA draft, Blake Griffin will be drawing unprecedented spotlight for a Clipper.  We all wonder just how good he will be.  I wont be able to predict the future but I think Griffin compares favorably with Michael Beasley, last year's 2nd pick.  Both are born in 1989 with identical height and body type.

Here are some physical and basketball attributes and on both players:

Beasley(Miami Heat)Michael Beasley

Position Height w/o Shoes Weight Wingspan Standing Reach Max Vertical 3/4 Court Sprint
SF/PF 6' 8.25" 239 7' 0.25" 8'11" 35 3.24

Beasley is projected to be Miami's starting SF while seeing some minutes at PF for the upcoming season. Like Derrick Rose, Beasley was asked to play a significant role on a marginal playoff team.  He averaged 14pts in 24mins of playing time while coming off the bench for most of the season.  Playing time should increase for Beasley but the recently acquired Quentin Richardson might be playing a significant amount of SF if coach Spoelstra wants to spread the floor for Wade.

Griffin(Los Angeles Clippers)Blake Griffin

Position Height w/o Shoes Weight Wingspan Standing Reach Max Vertical 3/4 Court Sprint
PF 6' 8.5" 248 6'11.25" 8.9" 35.5 3.28

Griffin is slotted as Clippers' starting PF and is likely to receive heavy minutes right away.  His main competitor for playing time will be Craig Smith who is also undersized.  I see Griffin easily getting 32+ mins/game.

Who will be better(this season)?

  • Inside/Post Offense

Beasley came in to the league as one of the best inside finisher who can uses his athleticism to finish with either hand.  However, Beasley has not attacked the rim at all during his rookie season.  His abysmal 3 freethrow attempts/game and low inside shot attempts clearly show he is simply settling for contested perimeter shots against taller defenders.  Miami's SF position averaged almost 4 less free throw attempts per game than the opposite SF.  Some of this may be caused by Miami's offensive sets as only 15% of his shot attempts came from post-up moves.  This means he is not getting plays called for him inside and he is always hanging around the perimeter. Now facing taller and better NBA defenders, Beasley's lack of a go-to post move really restricts his offensive potential as an undersized 4.  Miami's SFs were outscored by 6points per game by opposition's SF.  This is a very significant margin and shows the ineffectiveness of Beasley's offense.

At Oklahoma, Griffin was a dominant finisher around the rim while shooting 65% and grabbing 14.4 boards per game.  I strongly believe Griffin's inside game will translate in the NBA much better than Beasley's.  As Griffin will playing only power forward, he will be getting more opportunities close to the basket.  He also has the benefit not having Wade on his team and Mike Dunleavy's preference to run half court sets.  Unlike Beasley, Blake Griffin lacks a true outside shot so he won't be hanging around the perimeter much.

Edge: Blake Griffin

  • Perimeter Shooting & Passing

Beasley is a very good midrange shooter and he also shot 40% from 3s last season.  He is guaranteed to have more 3pt attempts this season.  The Heat should also expect improvement on his 44% shooting from 17 feet and out.  Beasley is not much of a passer or ball handler but he wasn't drafted to pass the ball.  As he gains more experience, his passing and decision making will improve somewhat closer to NBA average.

Griffin is definitely an inferior shooter to Beasley.  Although he is reported working hard on it and also made a few 3s in Las Vegas summer league, his outside shooting will be a weakness for this season.  Midrange jumpers should eventually be part of his offensive repertoire but that is years away.  Griffin has above average ball handling skills and shows willingness to pass the rock in college.  Rookie mistakes are expected but he will fare better and be less turnover-prone than Beasley.  It should be noted that Griffin is a terrible ft shooter(59%).

Edge: Michael Beasley

  • Defense & Rebounding

Beasley has been a surprising bad rebounder for the Heat.  Given his size, atheltism and rebounding prowess in college, he should've been an above rebounder at the 3 spot.  Being lazy and constantly being on the perimeter/out of position can explain his low rebounding rate.  Beasley is frankly an astrocious defender, and now it will only be worse as he spends more time as the SF this season.

As perviously mentioned, Griffin should be spending most of his time inside 15' which makes it more likely his rebounding dominance from college will carry over.  Griffin won't be a good defender this season but he definitely has the potential and work ethic.

Edge: Blake Griffin

All in all, Beasley seems to lack the drive and mentality for success.  Certainly it seems like Chicago made the correct choice in picking Rose, esspecially if Beasley continues to settle for perimeter shots this season.  Beasley should add to his scoring as he will be getting plent of playing time.  18ppg should be very doable as well as one 3 each game.  Blake Griffin will be a far more effective player as a rookie.  I see him playing like a David Lee and approaching 15/8 this season with 32 mins of playing time.  I believe his work ethic/unselfish attitude and better defensive potential make Griffin a more worthy #1 pick.

Stats used in this article are extracted from draftexpress.com and 82games.com


BallHype: hype it up!