Break the Curse

13Nov/093

Clippers (3-6) vs Toronto Raptors (4-4)

Gameday Haiku

Bargnani shooting,
Chris Bosh throwing down monstrous
dunks; oh me on my.

First Look

Raptors are starting its long west coast road trip tonight at Los Angeles.chris_bosh_mainpredatorFrom what I have seen, the Raptors are the best 2nd tier team behind the East's big 3.  Their record does not reflect this, just 4-4, with some tough losses.  Without Eric Gordon, the Clippers are really in disarray at the wing positions.  Butler/Thornton combo is simply too weak against other NBA starting combos.  The Clippers catch a break today with the Raptors starting Demar DeRozan who is not of NBA starter quality yet.

  • Clipper bigs will be lost.
    Bargnani is taking five 3s a game while making close to half of them. Bosh will also be shooting an array of midrange/outside jumpers. Kaman and Camby simply won't be able to defend them on the perimeter.  Hopefully Kaman will be able to muscle up Bargnani inside.
  • Jose Calderon
    He is not having the kind of statistically driven season that we are used to seeing the past two years.  He has uncharacteristically missed a few free throws and is shooting far below career norm from the field.  His assists numbers are also down due to Hedo Turkoglu's influence.  Having Hedo means taking the ball out of Calderon's hand.  This has brought his average from nine assists per game to six.  He is reduced to spot up duty on many possessions.  Jarrett Jack signing the full mid-level exception with the Raptors also mean Calderon's playing time is reduced.
  • Baron Davis
    For the Clippers to have any chance of winning, we need a big game from Bdiddy that we really haven't seen since his addition to the team. Davis has played fine so far and looked to be enjoying his job. Let's hope he can step up to night and be the star he once was.
9Nov/090

Clippers (3-4) vs New Orleans Hornets (2-5)

Gameday Haiku
Almighty Chris Paul
dropping dimes to David West;
May I plead ’Mercy?"

First Look

I hate to be pessimistic but Clippers will have trouble without Eric Gordon.  Baron will have plenty of trouble with CP3, everyone does; Thornton starting and playing 40+ means is very unappealing.  David West had two mediocre games in a row so I will watch out for him to make it up tonight.  Plus he has the ability to draw Camby away from protecting the rim.

  • CP3thumbsChris Paul is Godlike
    He is averaging 27 points a game this season but he is just not getting the support from his teammates.  He is also not getting the amount of steals we are used to seeing.  Not sure what is wrong there.
  • Outstanding Okafor
    He's been quietly averaging 12p/11r/2b over 7 games.  This is a major upgrade from Tyson Chandler which makes it strange that the Hornets are playing so poorly.  He is a premier low post defender with the size to bother Kaman.

Preview: Clipsnation | At The Hive

2Nov/090

Fantasy Flyer – Week 1 Review + Outlook

**I am happy to announce that this write-up has made it on to a main stream sports website!
The NBA season finally got underway and some surprising players are already putting up monster stats. Scroll down for Week 2 pickups.

While LeBron, Kobe, Dirk are putting up top 15 stats, there are some other real surprises.

Stars with an awesome week

Carmelo Anthony, F, Denver

You probably saw Melo shoot the lights out in all three games so far. He shot 54 percent from the floor, 88 percent on free throws and 37 PPG will get it done. He's also getting good rebound and assist numbers against just six turnovers.

Rajon Rondo, PG, Boston

He has 47 assists plus 10 steals in four games. Add 56 percent field goals and 20 rebounds to that and Rondo is really rewarding those who drafted him early.

Andrea Bargnani, F/C, Toronto

Thus far, he's putting up 22 PPG, more than two threes, with awesome efficiency numbers. Look for this to continue all season. Capable of being a top-30 fantasy player.

Shooting Stars

Channing Frye, F, Phoenix

Ridiculous shooting numbers so far, going 6-for-10 in threes in one game. You definitely want him on your team, and he's only owned in 57 percent of Yahoo! leagues. He can single-handedly carry your team's three-point need all season and add in some decent rebounding numbers. Think last season's Troy Murphy with more threes, but half the rebounds.

Danilo Gallinari, G/F, New York

Even more threes than Frye, yet only 70 percent owned so far. He should be owned in all leagues simply because the volume of threes he'll be taking (and making). Definitely capable of shooting 42 percent from long range, but he's one-dimensional and won't contribute elsewhere. His shooting percentage is bad for a forward.

Andray Blatche, F, Washington

Draining mid-range jumpers at a 72 percent clip. That'll definitely slide, but he should be a good source of blocks and rebounds as long as either Caron Butler or Antawn Jamison aren't in the lineup.

Monster Numbers

Marc Gasol, C, Memphis

Only 80 percent owned? Pick him up NOW! RIGHT NOW! There were concerns about Gasol getting enough touches with all the newcomers on the Memphis squad, but he's put up 20 PPG plus 11 RPG in three games. He'll shoot an awesome percentage from the stripe, and the field goal percentage is likely to be 55 percent-plus. He'll provide double-digit scoring and rebounding in addition to the great percentages. Turnovers might be a concern, but it should be less than three per game.

Chris Kaman, C, L.A. Clippers

Perhaps getting overshadowed by other top performers this week. He has 22 PPG, 10 RPG, 1.8 BPG with career averages of 50 percent field goals and 74 percent free throws. He's certainly capable of 15 and 12 with two blocks as seen in 2007-08 season. It's just a matter of if he's interested in basketball. Right now, the answer is yes.

Marcus Camby, C, L.A. Clippers

Puts up some gaudy scoring numbers with his usual boards and blocks. Sell high soon, as come December he won't be getting the same playing time.

Youngsters taking flight

Louis Williams, G, Philadelphia

Not getting the same attention as Frye or Danilo, but he put up big scoring numbers with just two turnovers in three games. He won't continue to shoot 63 percent, but 17 PPG-plus and 1.5-plus steals can be had. Check if he's still available!

Aaron Brooks, PG, Houston

Shouldering the scoring load for Houston, he has 22 PPG and eight APG so far. We should expect 18 PPG, 6.5 APG this season. Look for his shooting average to be closer to 43 percent than the current 49, though. He'll be a great source of threes and steals all season, but you have to take his turnovers too, which will hover over three.

Worthy mentions of non-superstars

Al Horford, C, Atlanta
Brook Lopez, C, New Jersey
Grant Hill, F, Phoenix
Marreese Speights, C, Philadelphia
Gilbert Arenas, PG, Washington
Trevor Ariza, G/F, Houston
Andrew Bynum, C, L.A. Lakers
Ryan Anderson, F, Orlando
Mario Chalmers, PG, Miami

The Poopy List (Disappointing Stars)

Jose Calderon, PG, Toronto
Monta Ellis, G, Golden State
Stephen Jackson, G, Golden State
Anthony Randolph, F, Golden State
Derrick Rose, PG, Chicago
Charlie Villanueva, F, Detroit
Baron Davis, PG, L.A. Clippers

Fallen Stars (Injured)

Pau Gasol, F/C, L.A. Lakers
Antawn Jamison, F, Washington
Devin Harris, PG, New Jersey
Mehmet Okur, C, Utah
Nate Robinson, G, New York
Caron Butler, G, Washington
Josh Howard, F, Dallas
Richard Hamilton, G, Detroit
Vince Carter, G, Orlando

Solid Pickups
Ryan Gomes, F, Minnesota

Very solid for points, rebounds and threes. Won't hurt your team in the shooting categories. Definitely deserves a spot in any standard 12-team roto league.

Brendan Haywood, C, Washington

Should be owned already. Playing the Pacers and Suns back-to-bacl late in the week. Should definitely be a good play for those two.

Ben Wallace, C, Detroit

Getting lots of playing time. The steals, blocks and rebounds are there. The free throws ... well ... have never been there.

Cory Brewer, G/F, Minnesota

Managers looking for steals and blocks should take a look at Brewer. He'll even throw in a few threes to help.

Good Luck and beat your friends or win money(or both)!

1Nov/090

Thoughts on the 10/30 Mavs @ Clips

The first four games of the season have been very disappointing. I really was optimistic to start the season despite Griffin's injury. Now, not so much. 40 wins is out for reach and 30 seems tough too. I am normally not the pessimistic type but I really dislike the way the Clippers are playing as a team. They do have a soft schedule ahead so hopefully the team will pick up the intensity.

  • Baron Davis sat out the fourth quarter.
    Baron played horribly all throughout the four games and did not do much today. Although I am somewhat encouraged by the fact that Coach Dunleavy stuck with the bench for once, I really don't see the Clippers pulling off a tight game with their best players on the bench. Despite his poor play, Baron is the player who can come in and close the game and this is something Telfair cannot do.
  • Al Thornton sucks
    Terrible defense on Dirk. Looking lost and letting Marion lose. Black hole on offense. Nothing new here, move along.
  • Chris Kaman 3.0
    Kid from Michigan averaging 22/10 against Bynum, Phoenix centers, Okur, Dampier.
  • Box Score Oddity: Rasual Butler
    26 minutes, 1 point on 3 shots.
19Sep/096

ABCD – Always Bad Clippers Disorder v. John Lucas

Here is the LA TIMES article.

Over at Clipperblog.com, DJ Foster is ecstatic over the arrival of John Lucas. It a very well-written piece and provides a lot of background on Lucas and what he has been doing recently.

I really would not put much stock into this hire. This simply looks like Lucas wants to get back in the NBA coaching ranks - working as an assistant being part of the procedure. Lucas won't be here for more than a season, unless Dunleavy has plans to step down and to give Lucas the reins. Despite whatever intentions Lucas has, our young players(Griffin, EJ, Jordan) will likely benefit from his tutoring. I really doubt the benefits will ever be noticeable. Maybe Lucas will improve their work ethics or citizenship, we don't know.

Simply put, Mr. Foster is suffering what I call the ABCD - Always Bad Clippers Disorder. A lot of Clippers fans just get overly excited whenever a roster transaction or front office move is made. Remember Derek Anderson, and how he was supposed to be our version of Kobe? What about hiring Mike the best coach in the league, Mike Dunleavy. Kandi man...oh wait. Most recently, the acquisition of Bdiddy.

I too, suffered from ABCD and I'm sure this guy did too.

19Aug/090

The Curious Case of Baron Davis

What went wrong last season?

Let us take a look at his basic stats from the last four seasons:

Baronstats

As one can see, Baron averaged just 15 points, well below his career average.  This can be attributed to his extremely poor shooting from the field even for his lowly standards.  He also attempted four less shots than he did the year before.  I will get into that later.  But we already know he sucks at shooting from watching him dribble into contested long shots, jack up 3s, and take half-hearted floaters.

Contrary to what Baron himself said, the fans know he felt betrayed by Elton Brand.  This coupled  with the clashing of basketball styles with coach Dunleavy and his well-published disinterest in basketball made a miserable union with the Clippers.

BaronpassingstatsThe passing stats chart to the right is a compilation of passing ratings of the top PGs in the league(I also added Wade and Lebron for comparison) in 08-09.

Despite Baron's bad first season with the Clippers, his passing ability is still ranks him among the best floorleaders.

What will happen this season?

At his best, Davis is a big defender that can hold his own while having one of the highest steals rate in the league.  His size and strength are useful as the undersized Eric Gordon will be spending a lot of time on the court with him.  As long as his heart is there, the defense will be acceptable.  This is not a big part of his game and is not what will impact the season.

This brings us to Baron's offense.  His numbers were way down last season due to not just horrify shooting but also because of the set plays that Dunleavy runs.  The slower pace of attack takes away a huge part of Davis's game where he can use his athleticism and passing to lead the fastbreak.  Dunleavy's walk the ball up preference simply just tempts B Diddy to dribble into a 3 early in the shot clock.  He started last season shooting in the 20% range but got a tad better towards the end.  As shown in my projection, I think Baron will return to shooting just over 40% from the field and taking a few more shots.  I think he deserves some slack on his shooting ability since he had always been the one on his team that has to force up a contested 3 as the shot clock winds down.

Baron's rebound rate went down last season but that should rebound nicely this seasons. haha.  His career rebound rate among active NBA point guard is second only to Jason Kidd.

Coach Dunleavy likes to post his guards.  So let Baron punish smaller guards inside.  With EJ and Butler as bombers, this should create a lot of problems for oppositions.

And yes Baron, last season was like a bad dream.  Bring back the beard, and the excitement and intensity you played with.  I leave you for now with one of my favorite basketball video ever.

Stats used in this article are extracted from sports.yahoo.com and 82games.com
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