Star or Black Hole? The Statistical Myth of Zach Randolph
When you type in "Zach Randolph" in google with "black hole" and "cancer," titles like Trading for Zach Randolph is Basketball Suicide, Back Hole Sun: Do the Grizzlies Really Not pass? ...etc. Looking through some of the discussion boards, you see things like "Zach is a ret
arded SOB who thinks he is god, is a black hole, doesn't defend, is overweight, has a terrible attitude, and did I mention he's a cancer?"
Let me begin this article by saying that I have never been a Zach Randolph fan. In fact, I hate his attitude on and off the court. Why am I even writing this article? Because I believe ESPN has overblown Z-bo's negatives. Too many of today's internet writers just copy whatever ESPN churns out. These writers in turn quotes ESPN like its the bible.
Statistics. Now, I know before I even bring up his stats, you are going to think - "Oh, sure Z-bo is a statsheet stuffer, but he doesn't pass the ball." In return, I am going to show you stats that show you he is a very good low post scoring threat who's deficiencies have been condemned unjustly.
First of all, I want to dispute the notion that Zach Randolph is lazy. Yes, he is a piece of fat lard but that doesn't mean he is lazy. Lets use rebounding as a measure of effort. To get rebounds, you have to do either - (1) be really tall, (2) jump really high, (3) get in a good position and box out your man. Randolph is 6'9" and he really doesn't jump very high for NBA standards. So that means he works and gets in position for rebounds. Discounting his first 2 years, Randolph averaged more than 10 rebounds for 5 of the last 7 seasons.
Lets compare that to Rasheed Wallace who is a 4-time all-star and plays just a tad more minutes per game than Randolph. How many seasons have he gotten over 10 rebounds per game? 0. In face, he has only averaged 8 or more in 2 seasons out of his entire career.
If the rebounding averages didn't convince you, lets go into advanced statistics. Career defensive rebound pct: 'Sheed is at 18.7%, Z-bo is at 22.9% and over 25% for the past 3 seasons. Just for the heck of it, I will throw in KG's godly rebounding numbers. KG is at 25.6% career and had 4 seasons of 2
9.7% or higher during his prime. Oh, and Z-bo doubles Rasheed's offensive rebounds averages, so don't even go there. Here is a top 10 rebounders list on Yahoo!'s Ball Don't Lie. (hint: Z-bo is on it)
OKay... so he is really not that lazy.. but he is a big black hole on offense. The simplest but inaccurate stats too look at is assists averages. RW: 1.9, ZB: 1.7. Both numbers are well within the norm for primary inside scoring options. Z-bo has actually averaged 1.9 and getting higher if his 2 seasons of riding the pine in Portland gets taken out. Dwelling further into passing, Randolph's career assist percentage is actually higher than Rasheed's. 10.6 to 9.8.
Alright. so he passes the ball just like other power forwards, but he jacks up shots and turn the ball over. Looking at turnover averages for number one inside scoring option, Randolph is again right smack down the middle. He does not turn the ball over particularly more than others. His average is the same as Bosh. Rasheed only gets 1.6 TO per game but I would argue that he really isn't an inside force anymore and haven't been for a very long time. Here are the shooting statistics for Rasheed and Zach respectively: FG% .471, TS% .539, eFG% .510 | FG% .466 TS% .520 eFG% .472. So the shooting percentage favors Rasheed but only slightly. I said slightly because Rasheed's 3pt shooting skews the true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage for him. In the past 2 seasons since Randolph started shooting some 3s, the numbers have been almost identical. You also have to take into consideration that Wallace has always been on good teams with better teammates. Also Rasheed takes less shots and scores way less points. That should help his shooting % in theory.
In my humble opinion, Z-bo would be a really good fit with in Cleveland with Lebron being the undisputed leader and first option. I really believed that had Cleveland courted Randolph and offered the Clippers a similar 2nd round pick, the Cavs would be the consensus NBA champ from day 1. Lebron's dominance on the offense end coupled with Mike Brown's emphasis on defense(with the support of Lebron) already has the Cavs as perennial contender. Add in Randolph's inside scoring and rebounding, they will be unstoappable. There would be no argument on getting more shots as long as Lebron is in charge. Now that he is in Memphis will ballhogs Gay, Mayo and AI, Z-bo will probably nullify everything I just wrote and be a malcontent player.
I never thought I would ever say this but.. please Zach Randolph, show 'the experts' that you are a star and not a black hole.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.
The Curious Case of Baron Davis
What went wrong last season?
Let us take a look at his basic stats from the last four seasons:
As one can see, Baron averaged just 15 points, well below his career average. This can be attributed to his extremely poor shooting from the field even for his lowly standards. He also attempted four less shots than he did the year before. I will get into that later. But we already know he sucks at shooting from watching him dribble into contested long shots, jack up 3s, and take half-hearted floaters.
Contrary to what Baron himself said, the fans know he felt betrayed by Elton Brand. This coupled with the clashing of basketball styles with coach Dunleavy and his well-published disinterest in basketball made a miserable union with the Clippers.
The passing stats chart to the right is a compilation of passing ratings of the top PGs in the league(I also added Wade and Lebron for comparison) in 08-09.
Despite Baron's bad first season with the Clippers, his passing ability is still ranks him among the best floorleaders.
What will happen this season?
At his best, Davis is a big defender that can hold his own while having one of the highest steals rate in the league. His size and strength are useful as the undersized Eric Gordon will be spending a lot of time on the court with him. As long as his heart is there, the defense will be acceptable. This is not a big part of his game and is not what will impact the season.
This brings us to Baron's offense. His numbers were way down last season due to not just horrify shooting but also because of the set plays that Dunleavy runs. The slower pace of attack takes away a huge part of Davis's game where he can use his athleticism and passing to lead the fastbreak. Dunleavy's walk the ball up preference simply just tempts B Diddy to dribble into a 3 early in the shot clock. He started last season shooting in the 20% range but got a tad better towards the end. As shown in my projection, I think Baron will return to shooting just over 40% from the field and taking a few more shots. I think he deserves some slack on his shooting ability since he had always been the one on his team that has to force up a contested 3 as the shot clock winds down.
Baron's rebound rate went down last season but that should rebound nicely this seasons. haha. His career rebound rate among active NBA point guard is second only to Jason Kidd.
Coach Dunleavy likes to post his guards. So let Baron punish smaller guards inside. With EJ and Butler as bombers, this should create a lot of problems for oppositions.
And yes Baron, last season was like a bad dream. Bring back the beard, and the excitement and intensity you played with. I leave you for now with one of my favorite basketball video ever.
Stats used in this article are extracted from sports.yahoo.com and 82games.com
Blake Griffin vs. Michael Beasley
Being the No.1 pick of this year's NBA draft, Blake Griffin will be drawing unprecedented spotlight for a Clipper. We all wonder just how good he will be. I wont be able to predict the future but I think Griffin compares favorably with Michael Beasley, last year's 2nd pick. Both are born in 1989 with identical height and body type.
Here are some physical and basketball attributes and on both players:
Beasley(Miami Heat)
| Position | Height w/o Shoes | Weight | Wingspan | Standing Reach | Max Vertical | 3/4 Court Sprint |
| SF/PF | 6' 8.25" | 239 | 7' 0.25" | 8'11" | 35 | 3.24 |
Beasley is projected to be Miami's starting SF while seeing some minutes at PF for the upcoming season. Like Derrick Rose, Beasley was asked to play a significant role on a marginal playoff team. He averaged 14pts in 24mins of playing time while coming off the bench for most of the season. Playing time should increase for Beasley but the recently acquired Quentin Richardson might be playing a significant amount of SF if coach Spoelstra wants to spread the floor for Wade.
Griffin(Los Angeles Clippers)
| Position | Height w/o Shoes | Weight | Wingspan | Standing Reach | Max Vertical | 3/4 Court Sprint |
| PF | 6' 8.5" | 248 | 6'11.25" | 8.9" | 35.5 | 3.28 |
Griffin is slotted as Clippers' starting PF and is likely to receive heavy minutes right away. His main competitor for playing time will be Craig Smith who is also undersized. I see Griffin easily getting 32+ mins/game.
Who will be better(this season)?
- Inside/Post Offense
Beasley came in to the league as one of the best inside finisher who can uses his athleticism to finish with either hand. However, Beasley has not attacked the rim at all during his rookie season. His abysmal 3 freethrow attempts/game and low inside shot attempts clearly show he is simply settling for contested perimeter shots against taller defenders. Miami's SF position averaged almost 4 less free throw attempts per game than the opposite SF. Some of this may be caused by Miami's offensive sets as only 15% of his shot attempts came from post-up moves. This means he is not getting plays called for him inside and he is always hanging around the perimeter. Now facing taller and better NBA defenders, Beasley's lack of a go-to post move really restricts his offensive potential as an undersized 4. Miami's SFs were outscored by 6points per game by opposition's SF. This is a very significant margin and shows the ineffectiveness of Beasley's offense.
At Oklahoma, Griffin was a dominant finisher around the rim while shooting 65% and grabbing 14.4 boards per game. I strongly believe Griffin's inside game will translate in the NBA much better than Beasley's. As Griffin will playing only power forward, he will be getting more opportunities close to the basket. He also has the benefit not having Wade on his team and Mike Dunleavy's preference to run half court sets. Unlike Beasley, Blake Griffin lacks a true outside shot so he won't be hanging around the perimeter much.
Edge: Blake Griffin
- Perimeter Shooting & Passing
Beasley is a very good midrange shooter and he also shot 40% from 3s last season. He is guaranteed to have more 3pt attempts this season. The Heat should also expect improvement on his 44% shooting from 17 feet and out. Beasley is not much of a passer or ball handler but he wasn't drafted to pass the ball. As he gains more experience, his passing and decision making will improve somewhat closer to NBA average.
Griffin is definitely an inferior shooter to Beasley. Although he is reported working hard on it and also made a few 3s in Las Vegas summer league, his outside shooting will be a weakness for this season. Midrange jumpers should eventually be part of his offensive repertoire but that is years away. Griffin has above average ball handling skills and shows willingness to pass the rock in college. Rookie mistakes are expected but he will fare better and be less turnover-prone than Beasley. It should be noted that Griffin is a terrible ft shooter(59%).
Edge: Michael Beasley
- Defense & Rebounding
Beasley has been a surprising bad rebounder for the Heat. Given his size, atheltism and rebounding prowess in college, he should've been an above rebounder at the 3 spot. Being lazy and constantly being on the perimeter/out of position can explain his low rebounding rate. Beasley is frankly an astrocious defender, and now it will only be worse as he spends more time as the SF this season.
As perviously mentioned, Griffin should be spending most of his time inside 15' which makes it more likely his rebounding dominance from college will carry over. Griffin won't be a good defender this season but he definitely has the potential and work ethic.
Edge: Blake Griffin
All in all, Beasley seems to lack the drive and mentality for success. Certainly it seems like Chicago made the correct choice in picking Rose, esspecially if Beasley continues to settle for perimeter shots this season. Beasley should add to his scoring as he will be getting plent of playing time. 18ppg should be very doable as well as one 3 each game. Blake Griffin will be a far more effective player as a rookie. I see him playing like a David Lee and approaching 15/8 this season with 32 mins of playing time. I believe his work ethic/unselfish attitude and better defensive potential make Griffin a more worthy #1 pick.
Stats used in this article are extracted from draftexpress.com and 82games.com
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